The Effects of Global and Cross-Border Factors on National and Local Conflict and Transitional Dynamics: trends, challenges, and knowledge gaps

This background report seeks to inform preparation of a strategic research agenda to better understand how global and transnational security developments are influencing local conflict in fragile states, and what the associated implications are for the Netherlands’ aid and trade agenda.

The report proposes that the research agenda focuses on transnational organized crime in Africa, and takes into account the associated links with socioeconomic drivers of conflict, private sector activities, trade, and finance. The report recommends the following interrelated topics for further research:

1. Teasing out the various impacts of transnational organized crime in specific contexts, theorizing an appropriate theory of change for these situations, and devising methods of measurement for the success or failure of possible interventions. The feasibility of a common set of indicators for transnational organized crime common to all contexts must be considered.

2. Understanding the possible moral economies, including links with extremism, particularly in Africa, including in those countries with which the Netherlands has an aid or aid-trade relationship, and using the insights gained in developing interventions.

3. Understanding the evolving use of new communications technologies in transnational cybercrime to better understand their potential in fragile states, and their impact on stability, not only in the African region, but also in other target countries with whom the Netherlands has an aid or aid-trade relationship.