Is the Dutch Security & Rule of Law Theory of Change ‘climate proof’? (Executive Summary)

The apparent influences of climate change on conflict and legitimate stability are increasingly salient politically, and in policy making, to Security & Rule of Law (SRoL) policy. This paper explores whether – and how – climate change leads to violent conflict in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCAS), and to what extent Dutch SRoL Theory of Change (ToC) is ‘climate proof’.