Expertise Matters: The Impact of Social Power Variations in National Inter-Religious Councils on Reducing Severe Electoral Violence

This article explores how power dynamics within National Inter-Religious Councils (NIRCs) affect their ability to reduce severe electoral violence in Africa. Using data from the National Elections Across Democracy and Autocracy (NELDA) project and an original dataset on NIRC interventions and social power, the study examines how variations in NIRCs’ social power influence electoral violence outcomes between 1992 and 2019. The central hypothesis posits that interventions by more powerful NIRCs during electoral rounds are more effective in reducing severe violence than those implemented by weaker councils. Additionally, the analysis highlights that the mitigating effect of NIRC interventions diminishes when expertise is not a core component of their influence.

The findings reveal that when powerful NIRCs intervene, the probability of severe electoral violence decreases by 42%, while less powerful NIRCs’ interventions are associated with a 20% increase in electoral violence. Moreover, the exclusion of expert power significantly shifts the dynamics between NIRCs’ interventions and electoral violence outcomes, resulting in comparatively higher levels of violence when technical expertise is when technical expertise is not integrated into their power structure. These findings underscore the indispensable role of expert authority in amplifying the effectiveness of NIRCs’ peacebuilding efforts in mitigating electoral violence.