Stability and economic recovery after Assad: key steps for Syria's post-conflict transition

This paper presents a political economy analysis of the regime of the Assads, exploring in depth the ways the regime constructed the current system of loyalty in business and social circles, as well as the incentives it offers its supporters. It also traces the effects of war on networks of crime, violence, sectarian affiliation and Islamist radicalism.

The end-point of Syria’s escalating conflict is impossible to foretell, but this does not mean that the international community cannot prepare for the outcome. Should the current regime headed by Bashar al-Assad eventually collapse, crumble or withdraw, the celebrations of the opposition, both peaceful and armed, will quickly be followed by a series of daunting challenges. In fact, Syria is likely to face the greatest transitional dilemmas of the Arab Spring.

Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael 2012

The Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ is the leading Dutch think tank and diplomatic academy on international affairs. The institute provides public and private sector organisations with in-depth analysis of global developments in the fields of economic diplomacy, international security and conflict management.